The dissertation substantiates theoretical approaches, improves methodical tools, and develops scientific and practical recommendations for transforming state regulation of foreign economic activity involving military and dual-use goods under global security challenges. The research focuses on balancing the urgent needs of the Defence Forces, innovative development of the national defence-industrial complex, and compliance with international export-control, non-proliferation and sanctions regimes.
The global arms market is interpreted as a highly concentrated and politically determined market in which software, cloud services, technical data and other intangible transfers increasingly complicate traditional control procedures. It is therefore proposed to transform bureaucratic supervision into risk-oriented regulation, supply-chain transparency and end-use monitoring. An author’s periodisation of state regulation of foreign economic activity in the defence-industrial complex distinguishes the stages of spontaneous survival (1991–2010), centralised consolidation and import substitution (2011–2021), and innovative integration into global security supply chains (since 2022).
For the first time, a scientific approach to state regulation of international transfers of military and dual-use goods has been developed by combining military Keynesianism and military Malthusianism. The organisational and institutional mechanism has been improved through an “open defence innovation ecosystem” combining the Brave1 cluster approach, private Military-Tech companies and joint ventures with NATO and EU partners. Strategic mechanisms of export-control digitalisation have been improved through intelligent monitoring, automated risk profiling, support for end-user verification and a protected digital environment for intangible technology transfers.
The study further develops adaptive state regulation under martial law: procedures for critical defence supplies should be simplified, while controls over high-risk destinations and actors supporting the aggressor should be strengthened. The defence-industrial foreign economic strategy is reoriented from classical exports towards joint production, localisation, technology transfer and joint R&D. The interaction between the state and business is developed through the model of managed technological absorption, combining localisation and direct offset mechanisms with secure regulation of intangible transfers.
The study systematises international regimes and instruments governing international transfers, including the Arms Trade Treaty, the Wassenaar Arrangement and end-use control practices. It identifies limitations of multilateral regimes associated with non-universal participation, consensus-based inertia, uneven national implementation and the digital dematerialisation of export objects. The dissertation substantiates the integration of a network-based export support model with end-use monitoring algorithms, enabling legal high-technology exports to be promoted while reducing the risks of unauthorised re-export and leakage of critical technologies.
Particular attention is paid to adapting state regulation to martial law and global sanctions regimes. An adaptive regulatory model is proposed that combines simplified procedures for critically needed defence supplies with strengthened controls over high-risk actors. The foreign economic strategy of the defence-industrial complex is reoriented towards international industrial cooperation, joint production, localisation, technology transfer and joint R&D with NATO and EU partners. The practical relevance of the results lies in their applicability to improving state export-control procedures and developing secure technological cooperation between the state and business.
