Nekrasova O. Dynamics of ranges and abundance of amphibians and reptiles in Ukraine under conditions of climate change and pronounced anthropogenic impact

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Science (DSc)

State registration number

0526U000035

Thesis Registration Form

0526U000035.pdf

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 03.00.08 - Зоологія

03-03-2026

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.153.01

Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Essay

The dissertation is devoted to a comprehensive study of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the ranges and population sizes of amphibians and reptiles in Ukraine under the influence of climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Using an integrative, interdisciplinary approach that combines many years of field observations with advanced computational techniques ‒ specifically, modern ecological niche modelling (ENM) methods and tools of digital ecology ‒ key regularities in changes in amphibian and reptile biota were identified. Species distribution models (SDMs) were developed for individual species, as well as models of batrachian and herpetofaunal complexes (ESDM, SSDM). This made it possible to examine in detail historical and contemporary trends in distributions and abundance, to reconstruct species ranges during the Holocene, to identify climatic refugia, and to determine the key drivers of range dynamics under different climatic conditions. In addition, trends and patterns in the dynamics of chorological parameters of focal species were established, and future changes were forecast. Special attention was paid to the analysis of abiotic, biotic, historical, and anthropogenic factors, as well as to specific issues ‒ global warming, habitat degradation, urbanization, transformation of wetland ecosystems, and the consequences of military actions ‒ for the structure and stability of populations of model amphibian and reptile species. For the first time for the fauna of Ukraine, it is shown comprehensively that climate change affects the distributions of amphibians and reptiles differently due to their chorological characteristics and ecological specialization: for amphibians, moisture and water availability are decisive, whereas for reptiles, temperature is primary, regulating activity, egg incubation rate, and sex determination. It was revealed that seasonal and interannual climatic variability, solar radiation, thermal regimes, and insolation underlie differences in the adaptive strategies of these groups. Based on the modelling results, key areas with high conservation priority for the protection of batrachian and herpetofaunal diversity were identified, and scientifically grounded recommendations were developed for the conservation of vulnerable species, for population monitoring, and for the implementation of modern intelligent conservation strategies. The decisive role of river valleys as ecological corridors in maintaining the spatial integrity of populations in the postglacial past, the present, and the future was demonstrated. The findings have important theoretical and practical significance for biodiversity conservation, for the identification of climatic refugia, and for the implementation of modern smart strategies to protect the batrachian and herpetofaunal diversity of Ukraine.

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Research papers

Nekrasova O., Yanish Y., Tytar V., Pupins M. 2019. GIS-modeling of the range shifts of the sub-fossil and extant European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Eastern Europe in the Holocene. Diversity, 11(8): 121.

Nekrasova O., Marushchak O., Pupins M., Škute A., Tytar V., Čeirāns A. 2021. Distribution and potential limiting factors of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Eastern Europe. Diversity, 13(7): 280.

Nekrasova O., Tytar V., Pupins M., Čeirāns A. 2022. Range expansion of the alien red-eared slider Trachemys scripta (Thunberg in Schoepff, 1792) (Reptilia, Testudines) in Eastern Europe, with special reference to Latvia and Ukraine. BioInvasions Records, 11(1): 287–295.

Nekrasova O., Marushchak O. 2023. Records of common species of amphibians and reptiles widespread in Northern, Central, Western and Southern Ukraine. Biodiversity Data Journal, 11: e99036.

Pupins M., Nekrasova O., Marushchak O., Tytar V., Theissinger K., Čeirāns A., Škute A., Georges J.-Y. 2023. Potential threat of an invasive fish species for two native newts inhabiting wetlands of Europe vulnerable to climate change. Diversity, 15(2): 201.

Pupins M., Nekrasova O., Tytar V., Garkajs A., Petrov I., Morozova A., Theissinger K., Čeirāns A., Škute A., Georges J.-Y. 2023. Geographically isolated wetlands as a reserve for the conservation of amphibian biodiversity at the edge of their range. Diversity, 15(3): 461.

Tytar V., Nekrasova O., Pupins M., Škute A., Kirjušina M., Gravele E., Mezaraupe L., Marushchak O., Čeirāns A., Kozynenko I., Kulikova A. A. 2023. Modeling the distribution of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis with special reference to Ukraine. Journal of Fungi, 9: 607.

Mezhzherin S., Morozov-Leonov S., Nekrasova O., Rostovskaya O. 2023. Geographic peculiarities of structure and hemicloning reproduction of Pelophylax esculentus water frog complex (Anura, Ranidae) populations in the East European Plain within Ukraine. Amphibia-Reptilia, 44(3): 263-275.

Čeirāns A., Pupins M., Kirjusina M., Gravele E., Mezaraupe L., Nekrasova O., et al. 2023. Top-down and bottom-up effects and relationships with local environmental factors in the water frog–helminth systems in Latvia. Scientific Reports, 13: 8621.

Nekrasova O., Pupins M., Marushchak O., Tytar V., Martinez-Silvestre A., Škute A., Čeirāns A., Theissinger K., Georges J.-Y. 2024. Present and future distribution of the European pond turtle versus seven exotic freshwater turtles, with a focus on Eastern Europe. Scientific Reports, Article No: 71911, 14.

Nekrasova O., Pupins M., Tytar V., Čeirāns A., Marushchak O., Škute A., Theissinger K., Georges J.-Y. 2025. Ensemble modelling for smart conservation strategies for forest reptile species at their range edges in Europe amidst climate change. Geography and Sustainability, 2025: 100266

Nekrasova O. D., Gavris G. G., Kuybida V. V. 2013. Changes in the northern border of the home range of the dice snake, Natrix tessellata (Reptilia, Colubridae), in the Dnipro Basin (Ukraine). Vestnik Zoologii 47(5): 67–71.

Vasyliuk O. V., Nekrasova O. D., Shyriaieva D. V. et al. 2015. A review of major impact factors of hostilities influencing biodiversity in the Eastern Ukraine (Modeled On Selected Animal Species). Vestnik Zoologii 49(2): 145–158.

Nekrasova O. D., Kostiushyn V. A. 2016. Current Distribution of the Introduced Rock Lizards of the Darevskia (Saxicola) complex (Sauria, Lacertidae, Darevskia) in Zhytomyr Region (Ukraine). Vestnik Zoologii 50(3): 225–230.

Tytar V., Nekrasova O., Pupina A., Pupins M., Oskyrko O. 2018. Long-term bioclimatic modelling the distribution of the fire-bellied toad, Bombina bombina (Anura, Bombinatoridae), under the influence of global climate change. Vestnik Zoologii 52(4): 341–348.

Nekrasova O. D., Oskyrko O. S., Marushchak O. Yu. 2018. Color features of sand lizards, Lacerta agilis (Sauria, Lacertidae), in Kyiv region (Ukraine). Vestnik Zoologii. 52(6): 495–500.

Pupina A., Pupins M., Nekrasova O., Tytar V., Kozynenko I., Marushchak O. 2018. Species distribution modelling: Bombina bombina (Linnaeus, 1761) and its important invasive threat Perccottus glenii (Dybowski, 1877) in Latvia under global climate change. Journal of Environmental Research, Engineering and Management 74(4): 79–86.

Tytar V., Nekrasova O., Pupins M. 2019. Positive relationships between human impact and biodiversity: the case of the fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina) in Europe. Technology. Resources. The 12th International Scientific and Practical Conference 1: 311–314.

Marushchak O., Nekrasova O., Pupins M., Tytar V., Čeirāns A. 2019. The Role and Importance of the Protected Areas’ (Emerald Network) Development for Amphibians and Reptiles on the Example of Ukraine in the Context of Various Factors’ Influence. Environment. Technology. Resources. The 12th International Scientific and Practical Conference 1: 154–158.

Kuzmin Y., Dmytrieva I., Marushchak O., Morozov-Leonov S., Oskyrko O., Nekrasova O. 2020. Helminth Species and Infracommunities in Frogs Pelophylax ridibundus and P. esculentus (Amphibia: Ranidae) in Northern Ukraine. Acta Parasitologica: 1–13.

Nekrasova O., Tytar V., Pupins M., Čeirāns A., Škute A. 2021. GIS modeling of the distribution of terrestrial turtle species: Testudo graeca Linnaeus, 1758 and Testudo hermanni Gmelin, 1789 of Eastern Europe in the context of climate change. Zoodiversity 55(5): 387–394.

Marushchak O. Y., Nekrasova O. D., Tytar V. M., Smirnov N. A., Korshunov O. V., Pupins M., Mykytynets G., Škute A., Henle K., Kaiser H. 2021. A GIS approach to the study of colour anomalies in amphibians of Ukraine reveals the deleterious effect of human impacts. Herpetology Notes 14: 1239–1251

Jakóbik J., Drohvalenko M., Fernandez Melendez E., Kępa E., Klynova O., Fedorova A., Korshunov O., Marushchak O., Nekrasova O., Suriadna N., Smirnov N., Tkachenko O., Tupikov A., Dufresnes C., Zinenko O., Pabijan M. 2024. Countrywide screening supports model-based predictions of the distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ukraine. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, 159: 15–27.

Некрасова О. Д., Межжерин С. В., Морозов-Леонов С. Ю., Сытник Ю. М. 2007. Случай массовой полимелии у озерных лягушек (Rana ridibunda Pall., 1771) Киева. Наук. віс. Ужгородського університету. Серія Біологія 21: 92–95.

Некрасова О. Д., Оскирко О. С., Куйбида В. В., Дубина А. Д. 2017. Распространение зеленой ящерицы Lacerta viridis (Laurenti, 1768) (Sauria: Lacertidae) в экокоридоре Днепра (Украина). Збірник праць зоологічного музею 48: 46–53.

Некрасова О. Д., Титар В. М., Куйбіда В. В. 2019. ГІС-моделювання поширення вразливих до змін клімату земноводних та плазунів України. НАНУ, Інститут зоології ім. І. І. Шмальгаузена. К. 204 с.

Некрасова О. Д., Куйбіда В. В., Жорж Ж.-І., Марущак О. Ю. 2024. Вплив змін клімату на водно-болотні екосистеми та герпетофауну Середнього Придніпров’я на прикладі Ржищівської МОТГ. Біорізноманіття Ржищівської міської об’єднаної територіальної громади. Вип. 4. С. 132-149.

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