Shmundiak D. System analysis of the state of natural environments considering anomalies

Ph.D. thesis: 195 p., 11 tables, 80 figures, 7 appendixes, 88 references. SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF THE STATE OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENTS CONSIDERING ANOMALIES This research aims to improve the accuracy of forecasting the condition of natural environments by developing methods and technologies for system analysis that account for anomalies. The object of the study is the processes involved in analyzing and forecasting the state of natural environments within environmental management systems. The subject of the study is the methods and technologies of system analysis used to assess and predict environmental conditions, with a particular focus on the impact of anomalies. The research employs a general scientific methodology and adheres to the principles of the systems approach. This includes a comprehensive analysis of literature, open data sources, and experimental results, along with system and data analysis techniques. Additionally, the study applies the analytic hierarchy process, as well as modern approaches based on neural networks, machine learning, time series forecasting, Bayesian modeling, and analysis of Earth remote sensing data. The technology for systematic analysis of the state of the natural environment, accounting for anomalies, has been enhanced. This technology utilizes both classical and novel methods to identify the primary types of uncertainty present in various natural environment management systems, enabling more accurate predictions of the environmental state using more reliable data. The technology is described by an algorithm consisting of 15 stages. It can be applied for a comprehensive analysis of natural environment management systems, significantly improving the accuracy of both the analysis and prediction of environmental data. The results of the dissertation research have been published in 14 works, including 5 articles in scientific professional periodicals in specialty 124, 1 article in an international journal indexed in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, and 8 abstracts presented at scientific and practical conferences.