This dissertation research provides a theoretical and methodological substantiation of the Arctic as a new platform for global economic coopetition between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America. It analyzes the mechanisms shaping hybrid strategies of interaction under conditions of geopolitical tension and climate transformation. It determines the prospects for the evolution of Arctic policy as a component of international economic diplomacy aimed at ensuring sustainable interdependence.
This paper systematizes the evolution of theoretical approaches to economic coopetition as a hybrid strategy that integrates competition and cooperation. It highlights the strategy’s key characteristics: duality, strategic interdependence, and contextual variability. The genesis of relevant scientific thought is traced from mercantilism and classical political economy to institutionalism and game theory. Furthermore, the discourse on the development of coopetition in the Arctic is synthesized by integrating resource-based theory, transaction cost economics, and network models. This theoretical framework explains the inherent balance between rivalry over resources and cooperation in areas such as climate monitoring.
The analysis examines institutional and regulatory architecture. of the Arctic Council, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and specialized forums (e.g., Arctic Circle, Arctic Frontiers), revealing the specifics of their post-2022 transformation. It determines the role of key non-Arctic actors – China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea – in shaping a polycentric system of hybrid governance. Furthermore, the paper discloses the structure of the US and PRC economic interests, identifies mechanisms of militarization and environmental risks, and outlines the potential for synergy within the conceptual frameworks of Chimerica 2.0 and Arctic Exceptionalism 2.0.
The investigation of the PRC’s interaction with Arctic states – Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Canada, and russia – reveals a dominant focus on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) and rare earth metals sectors. The analysis outlines a synergy between scientific diplomacy and economic expansionism, while identifying key institutional constraints, such as the principle of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) and ESG standards, which limit capital attraction.
The analysis has improved the typology of coopetition forms by constructing a multi-criteria classification (isolating, adaptive, symbiotic). This framework provides the analytical basis for scenario-based forecasting of Arctic governance models, such as «Nordic Plus» and the ATS model. Furthermore, the research develops conceptual approaches to synergizing military-security and scientific-research strategies. It proves the multiplicative effect of joint initiatives in the fields of shipbuilding, energy, and climate monitoring.
A four-dimensional model of Arctic cooperation (institutional, economic, security, and scientific dimensions) has been developed, taking into account the impact of globalization processes, the role of russia and NATO, and socio-environmental risks. Empirical analysis proves that climate transformations positively impact logistical flows, specifically increasing the intensity of use of the Northern Sea Route. It further demonstrates the absence of a direct correlation between militarization and the level of cooperation, a finding that confirms the potential for «soft governance» approaches in the region.
The analysis shows that Arctic coopetition is evolving toward greater inclusiveness, technological leadership, and ecological sustainability. It substantiates the prospect that cooperative initiatives could increase to 40–50% by 2030 within frameworks like REPowerEU and the Polar Silk Road. However, the research emphasizes the persistent need for harmonizing legal frameworks to address sanction and climate risks and to mediate the asymmetry of interests among key actors. For the USA and the PRC, the study identifies the strategic modernization of institutions, the localization of «green» technologies, and the diversification of partnerships as key imperatives for their polar diplomacy and integration into global value chains.
Keywords: economic coopetition, competition, cooperation, Arctic, China, USA, geopolitical challenges, institutional governance, synergistic effect, climate risks, economic diplomacy, Polar Silk Road, Northern Sea Route, ESG standards, export, import.
