The dissertation research is devoted to the theoretical and methodological substantiation of the global imperatives of the European Union’s investment activity, the analysis of transformations in the international investment position of EU member states under conditions of geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, as well as the identification of strategic guidelines for Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery through the engagement of EU investment projects as a factor in deepening the processes of European integration.
The study systematizes the evolution of theoretical approaches to explaining the nature of foreign direct investment, identifies the key imperatives of investment attractiveness of economic agents, and examines the development of investment policy as a component of the EU’s common commercial policy. The analytical potential of the OLI model is summarized, along with the author’s development of the DG-OLI model and the concept of the «investment development path», which are applied to the assessment of investment flows in the context of digitalization, the «green» transition, and the formation of the Union’s strategic autonomy.
The research analyzes the structure and dynamics of foreign direct investment within the EU, focusing on the specific features of its regulation in accordance with EU Regulation 2019/452, and the investment discourse under conditions of global uncertainty. The research elucidates the essence and directions of transformation in the International Investment Position of EU member states, conceptualizing key challenges and outlining the potential for the Union’s further development of investment. Furthermore, the analysis examines the dynamics of the EU’s external investment flows, the structure of assets and liabilities, and the influence of major crisis events (including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 energy crisis). Attention is given to the role of institutional investors and sovereign funds in shaping priority sectors, specifically technological, energy (with emphasis on green initiatives), and defense industries.
The study established an increase in the share of «green» and technological FDI to 30% in 2023 and a reduction in reliance on Chinese capital (to 4%) in favor of G7 partners. The study demonstrates that the transformation of the EU’s International Investment Position – shifting from a negative balance (-€1.2 trillion in 2022) to a positive one (+€1.14 trillion in 2024) – indicates the recovery of the Union’s financial and economic positions following geopolitical shocks. At the same time, the research found that regulatory fragmentation and an insufficient level of investment in high-tech sectors constrain the transition to a knowledge-based economic model.
The research investigated the structure and dynamics of investments from EU member states into Ukraine. It identified the dominance of the financial and manufacturing sectors, revealed the synergy between defense investments and economic recovery processes, and outlined institutional deficits (specifically in the judiciary and risk insurance mechanisms) that limit the inflow of foreign direct investment.
The study refined the typology of sectoral foreign direct investment from EU member states into countries experiencing a geopolitical crisis by constructing a three-dimensional model (durable, cyclical, and prospective sectors). This model establishes an analytical framework for forecasting investment policy priorities. Furthermore, the research developed conceptual approaches to the synergy of defense and economic investments within the context of the EU’s strategic autonomy and proved the multiplicative effect of such investments on related industries.
The research developed a five-factor regression model for foreign direct investment from EU member states into Ukraine, which incorporates macroeconomic indicators of donor countries, their share in foreign trade operations, and the level of control over offshore flows. Based on empirical calculations, the research established a positive impact from economic growth in donor countries and an increase in import flows from Ukraine. Conversely, the absence of correlation with EU exports indicates limited interest in localizing production within Ukraine.
For Ukraine, the study determined that strategic modernization of institutions, localization of defense production, and diversification of foreign direct investment flows are the key imperatives for post-war recovery and integration into European value chains. Provided that EU investment projects are implemented effectively, the annual growth of Ukraine’s GDP is projected to increase by 2–3%.
