The dissertation is devoted to the development and improvement of theoretical and methodological provisions as well as practical recommendations for enterprise risk management within the value system of the circular economy.
The first chapter examines the theoretical aspects of enterprise risk management in the context of the circular economy. The essence and types of enterprise risks are identified considering resource scarcity, environmental uncertainty, changing consumer priorities, and innovation-driven development. A classification of risks is proposed, covering environmental, economic, social, technological, and institutional components. The content of the circular economy value system is specified through such elements as resource efficiency, closed-loop material flows, innovation, social responsibility, and long-term effectiveness. The interrelation between the values of the circular economy and the risk profile of enterprises is substantiated, emphasizing the need to adapt strategic management approaches. The spatial and temporal dimensions of risk management are presented as a combination of regional challenges, adaptation horizons, and the integration of sustainable development principles.
The second chapter focuses on the analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of enterprise risk management within the circular economy value system. The practices of leading global companies regarding the integration of circular economy principles into risk management are analyzed. Key factors influencing the effectiveness of risk management are identified, including corporate culture, strategic planning, innovation, adaptability, integration of sustainability into decision-making processes, analytical capability, transparency, and stakeholder engagement. Based on an expert survey involving 186 respondents from six regions of Ukraine, the significance of these factors was evaluated and regional as well as gender-specific features of risk perception were identified. Using index analysis and the PAVA algorithm, a cluster structure of the risk environment was formed and the interrelations between its elements were determined. The results confirmed the leading role of risk analysis and sustainability integration in the formation of an effective enterprise risk management system.
The third chapter presents the assessment, forecasting, and dynamic modeling of enterprise risk management systems within the framework of the circular economy. A step-by-step methodology for risk assessment is proposed, including risk identification, determination of risk probability and impact, construction of an integrated indicator, and selection of management strategies. Risk forecasting is carried out using a multifactor scenario-based approach involving optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic scenarios. Structural and analytical models for enterprises operating in different sectors are developed, taking into account production flows, resource use, environmental impact, innovation activity, and profitability. The study applies differential equations, Monte Carlo methods, AHP, TOPSIS, and sensitivity analysis. Model validation using R² and χ² indicators confirmed their reliability and practical applicability. Based on the modeling results, recommendations were developed to reduce risks, increase enterprise adaptability, improve resource efficiency, and implement innovations.
