Ivanov M. Management of Financial Stability of Small Enterprises in the Packaging Industry

The dissertation thesis is dedicated to the theoretical and methodical substantiation of the conceptual foundations of financial sustainability management of small enterprises in the packaging industry and the development of strategic directions for its strengthening under the conditions of cyclical economic fluctuations and martial law. Relevance of the research is determined by the high level of turbulence in the external environment of Ukraine caused by the full-scale military aggression of the russian federation, the disruption of logistical chains, personnel shortages, and the limited access of small businesses to capital markets. Under such circumstances, the financial sustainability of the conditionally cyclical packaging industry becomes a fundamental factor for ensuring the viability of economic entities and a cornerstone for the general macroeconomic recovery of the state. Scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in deepening the theoretical provisions and forming applied tools for anti-cyclical management of financial resources. For the first time, a methodology for calculating the integral indicator of financial sustainability has been developed based on the generalized Harrington desirability function, which allows merging diverse ratios (autonomy, maneuverability, leverage) into a single dimensionless value for an objective assessment of the enterprise's condition. The theoretical and methodical foundations of studying the impact of cyclicality have been improved by typifying the financial and economic condition into risk zones (from a comfort zone to critical instability) according to the phases of the economic cycle. The methodology of financial sustainability management has been improved through the implementation of a scenario-based approach using fuzzy cognitive modeling (signed graphs), which enables multi-variant forecasting of financial independence levels. Scientific and methodical approaches to selecting adaptive strategies (anti-crisis, stabilization, development) have been further developed based on game theory tools and statistical decisions ("games with nature") depending on scenario-based states of the military and political situation. Theoretical significance of the research results lies in expanding the conceptual and categorical apparatus of financial management and developing a methodology for assessing the financial stability of enterprises in a weakly structured environment. Practical significance of the obtained results consists in the development of specific applied recommendations implemented into the operations of packaging industry enterprises (LLC "FRESH-PACK-UKRAINE", LLC "FRESHPACK-GROUP", etc.) for the real-time modeling of financial decisions, minimizing losses from military and political risks, optimizing capital structure, and effectively attracting grant resources and preferential lending.