Yatsyuk M. An estimation, forecasting and optimization of a hydrochemical regime in conditions of technogenous (on an example of basin of r. Samara)

The factors and laws of formation of hydrochemical regime and its changings in spatial - temporal coordinates were determined, the connection of the qualitative characteristics of surfice waters of the basin Samara and the regime of economic was established. The quality of surfice waters of the basin of r. Samara for the last years (1994-1998) was appreciated, also the forecasting of it was carried aut for the closest prospect. Proceeding from such statement of the task and methods of their decision the author offers the new methodical approaches to the scientific researches in the basin of an average river placed in an industrially sated (ecologically intense) region. For the first time the natural and anthropogenous factors, which influence on formation of a hydrochemical regime in the basin of r. Samara have been analysed in comlex. The contents of main ions and basic polluting substances in river waters within the limits of the basin were investigated. The features of spatial - temporal dynamics of distribution of the polluting substances in the basin of r.Samara were investigated and its forecasting was carried out. For the first time the hydrochemical balance of the r.Samara has been calculated and its components were determined on the basis of created model. The high-sensitive model of operative and long-term forecasting was developed in view of the main natural and anthropogenous factors, which influence on the formation of a hydrochemical regime. For today the question of the correct and optimum managing decisions in the field of water using and other fields of economy and facilities is very important. Key words: optimization, operative forecasting, long-term forecasting, factors, quality of water, estimation, mathematical modelling.