Stavyts'kyj A. Forecasting of the Vfin Articles of the Dflfnce of Payment in Ukraine

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Candidate of Sciences (CSc)

State registration number

0401U003183

Thesis Registration Form

0401U003183.pdf

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.03.02 - Економіко-математичне моделювання

14-11-2001

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.001.12

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Essay

The thesis deals with the problem of forecasting the balance of paymentsin UkraineNew indexes that define effective currency exchange rate in macroeconomy changes have been suggested. 12 different statistical approaches have been invesytigated, a numerical realisation of considered models has been conducted and forecasts for four quarters of 2001 have been obtained. The association of expert judgements and statistical approaches are illustrated in forecasting models of time series subject to changes in regimes

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Files

diss.doc

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