Rudensky R. Modelling of anticipative management of economic security processes

Object of research: processes of initiation, evolution and anticipation of different kinds of threats within economic security management system. Purpose of research: design of complex anticipative economic security management system. Methods of research: system analy-sis, economic and mathematical modeling, economic dy-namics, dynamical growth models, economic security, in particular approaches to its evaluation, modeling and management. Results: the essence of economic security notion and approaches to its evaluation at different levels and from the system approach point of view are analyzed. In this connection methodological fundamentals of eco-nomic security modeling are developed; generalized criti-cal analysis of modern models and methods used to de-termine the economic security and control is conducted. As the result of analysis the perspective lines of economic security modeling are defined; the concept of economic security management is developed. The concept provides maintains of high level of economic security of the object of inquiry at the expense of anticipative features realiza-tion; the basics of economic security of production and economic systems modeling are defined. In addition expe-diency of use fuzzy economic security threats estimates for realization in model anticipative effect and taking into account the influence on quality and quantity of informa-tional, material, energy, manpower and financial resources is grounded. Model of optimal enterprise's financial re-sources management that provide effective redistribution of its assets and liabilities from the financial security point of view is designed; the complex of macroeconomic sys-tems' economic security supporting system models is de-veloped. Appropriate functional blocks of such systems and structural-logical relations between them are defined; complex of interlevel interactions in economic security management system models is developed. Novelty: con-cept of economic security anticipative management of production and economic systems where the notion of anticipative management is introduced, grounded the ex-pediency of its application to ensure economic security; authoring models of production and economic systems' economic security management based on use of fuzzy estimates of economic security threats and their influence on quality and quantity of informational, material, energy, manpower and financial resources; models of macroeco-nomic security management system, where ideas of segre-gation the functional blocks are realized and interrelations between them are defined and their formalization is per-formed. It provides stable functioning of socioeconomic field at regional and state levels; models of interlevel in-teractions in economic security management system where for the first time growth models and analysis of their behavior are used to value interlevels influences in economic security management system. Field of use: in-terregional