Mikitenko V. Estimation of energy saving and its forecasting in the industry of Ukraine

Object: the processes of utilization of energy resources in Ukrainian industry. Research work goal: development of methodical approaches to complex evaluation and forecasting of power saving in industry branches of Ukraine. Methods: system analysis, economic-mathematic modeling, analytical-statistic, detalization and synthesis, graphical, price approaches, forecasting - expert evaluations and direct calculations. Theoretical and practical results enrich with the new approaches and methodological instruments for complex evaluation and forecasting of industry branches and industry technologies when working out theoretical basis of energy saving using the complex of power saving models, system of generalized power saving indices. Practical value of the results lays in usage of methods suggested for defining the priority directions of saving power resources and indices of power efficiency of industry branches, development of long-term innovational programs and supplying the system monitoring of power efficiency, increasing the efficiency of middle- and long-term planning policy and forecasting of power saving in industry. Novelty: improvement of methodological approaches to complex evaluation of industry branches and technologies efficiency from the point of view of power supply factor and a concept of using the rapid cycles of power saving in connection of links "branch-raw-product-technology-product" (BRTP) was suggested. United criteria to assessment of power saving events efficiency in industry are proved using the system of coefficients and indices according to the methods of express analysis using the new concepts: BRTP-structure and economic-mathematic model of technologies substitution. Methods of finding the generalized integral indices of power saving are developed both for separate technologies and for the industry branches in general, which gave the opportunity to do the variational forecast of power economic indices on a term to year 2030. Methods of choosing the variants of technical and technological solutions, estimation of levels and efficiency of power saving events on the basis of universal models and BRTP-structures of power saving using the minimum quantity of data were developed. A concept of secluded forecasting cycles of industry power economic indices substantiating the task hierarchy was developed. Implementation degree: methodological and practical developments were used in the process of fulfilling the 3 scientific research works, in development of a project of Power strategy of Ukraine up to year 2030, in the projects of Ukrainian laws "On the basis of national interests of Ukraine", "On the innovational activity", "On the government support of development of high technologies in Ukraine". Economic and organizational events on improving the administration of power savings are used in 2 industrial enterprises, and in a study process - in program administration and support of such disciplines as "Projects management", "Operational management", in obtaining a license and implementing the educational activities on qualification improvement of specialists. Implementation efficiency: assist in creating a constant working forecasting system for determination of perspective directions of Ukrainian industry economic growth. Sphere of implementation: industry economics.