Chernova N. Adaptive estimation and analysis models of regional economic safety

The subject of the research: the processes of management of regional economic safety. The purpose of the research: to develop a complex of economic and mathematical models of estimation and analysis of regional economic safety on the base of adaptive approach, which use provides increasing of efficiency of the regional systems' functioning. The methods of the research: the theory of regional management, system analysis, methods of economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting, in particular, methods of multivariate statistical analysis, econometric modeling, adaptive filtration. Theoretical result: the concept of estimation and analysis of economic safety of region has been developed. It is used as a theoretical base for development of the decision making support system in the sphere of regional safety. Applied value: the complex of adaptive models of estimation, analysis and forecasting of regional economic safety has been developed, which allows to raise the quality and efficiency of taken decisions in a practice of regional management. Scientific novelty. The concept of estimation and analysis of regional economic safety, based on adaptive mechanisms, which allows to prevent the occurrence of threats to regional economic safety, to locate and, whenever possible, to remove their destabilizing influence. The complex of adaptive estimation, analysis and forecasting models of regional economic safety is developed on the basis of multivariate statistical analysis, econometric modeling, and adaptive filtration. It lets to generate a set of alternative variants of the decisions on management of economic safety. The classification model of economic safety's threats is suggested. It allows to increase quality and accuracy of threats' diagnostics. The model of safety's level estimation and model of threats' level estimation, that allow to reach the reducing of initial dimension of parameters' space without essential loss of the information and to put in order the researched set of periods of the region's development. The adaptive forecasting model of regional economic safety's level. Its parameters have got flexible respond to varied conditions of region s functioning and development. The notional apparatus of economic safety s problem, which allows to avoid the contradictions in certain terms interpretation.