Kobrin P. Methods and facilities for long-term forecasting load curves of electric power pool in the conditions of transitional economy

It is determined by the analysis of methods for long-term forecasting the electric load curves (ELC) of the electric power pool (EPP), that application of methods for establishing dependences, time series, mathematical analysis, and extrapolation of dynamic curves, which were traditionally used for ELC forecasting, are not possible due to considerable structural changes in retrospective period. It is proved the necessity of development of new methods for ELC forecasting, because the problem of ELC EPP long-term forecasting is not developed enough complete in the conditions of transitional economy. The method of form representations for long-term forecasting the ELC EPP form and their parameters are developed. Its principal feature is that comparison and forming of predicted ELC is carried out with the use of a value, which is new in principle, as argument, namely, index of annual electricity consumption (time as argument is excluded from the analysis), and beginning of retrospective period coincides with the year of maximal electricity consumption in the past. The mathematical model of the ELC long-term forecasting, which enables to conduct correction of predicted ELC by taking tariff factor through the function of demand into account is developed. The program informational complex "PROGNOSIS" is developed for conducting the forecast calculations of EPP ELC for the distant future.