Goliyad N. Models of Anticrises Menegement of Region

The object of the investigation – the process of the region anticrisis management. The aim of the thesis is the development of the complex of economical-mathematical models for the anticrisis region management, which allows one to estimate the level of the regional development and to determine the tendencies directions of the crisis on the basis of the algorithms and methodology proposed. It is also possible to develop the complex of operative and tactical decisions for the regional management. The theoretical-methodological basis of the thesis is the cyclic theory, the decision-making theory, the investigations of the national and foreign scientists in the area of the anticrisis management and the economical-mathematical methods. During the investigation we used the following methods: The method of the system analysis – for the representation of the investigated object and its items, the problems and tools of the investigation; the expert methods – for the analysis of the expert decisions during the formation of the informational space; taxonomic methods for the composition of the integral characteristics during the study of the private and general level of development of a region; the method of the time-series analysis – for the sake of distinguishing the cyclic components in the tendency of the regional development; the spectral analysis methods – to distinguish the cyclic components via the Fourier expand; the cluster analysis - for the classification of the region belonging to either this or that class; the econometrical methods – for the determination of the development dependence of some activity spheres and of the region as a whole; the methods of the discrimination analysis – for the classification of the regional cluster; the optimization methods - for the determination of the points of global and local crisis. The practical value of the thesis results is the following: the theoretical propositions was developed to the practical realizations and the final scenario for the implementation. The usage of the approaches proposed allowed to analyze the social-economical of the Kharkov region, to determine the possible crisises and the time of their appearance, the crisis spheres of the regional activity and, as a consequence, to develop the complex of the tactical and operational measures to the anticrisi management of the region. We emphasize the practical value of the following results: the decision methodic for the anticrisis regional management, the model for the determination of the local and global crisises in the regional development, the models For the regional development forecasting; the algorithm for the construction of the operative and tactical decisions for the anticrisis regional management. The scientific novelty of the results obtained is the following. We developed the complex of the economical-mathematical models for the anticrisis regional management: the mechanism of the anticrisis management of a region based on the modeling of the activity of the “spheres” behavior. This mechanism allows one to built up the complex of the anticipation management actions following the development tendencies of both the region and entire economics. The methodology of the decision making for anticrisis regional management based on the model for the determination of development level permits the increase of the formalization and substantiation of management decisions relevant to localization and preventing of development of the crisis. The models of the analysis of development of the region is based on methods of the spectral analysis. It allows one to diagnose operatively the possibility of the crisis in the regional analysis. The models for the determination of the development level of the region based on the cluster and discrimination analysis and permits to increase the quality of its esteem. The algorithm of formation of the system factors for the social-economical development of the region. It includes the specification of the development of “spheres” in timing and comparative cross-sections. The application area is the possibility to utilize the models developed for anticrisis regional management, which are applicable to the local self-government and state institutions.