Bogonikolos N. Models of anticipatory management in factory financial activity

Object of research are the processes of management of a financial system in conditions of uncertainty. Methodological base of research are the jobs of the domestic and foreign scientists in sphere of financial management and financial planning of the enterprise, adaptive planning and management, modeling and forecasting of financial processes, mathematical statistics, financial analysis, and also modern information technologies in systems of acceptance of the decisions. The theoretical result the concept of a financial system of the enterprise is used as a theoretical basis at system engineering of acceptance of the decisions directed on maintenance to its financial stability. The practical result is, that use of results will permit to the industrial enterprises is proved and qualitatively to carry out process of management. Scientific novelty: the concept of a financial system is offered which is based on principles of adaptive management, the realization of which rules will permit to estimate influence of threats on formation of a crisis financial condition of the enterprise and to develop превентивные of a measure till this or that threats, which will ensure stability of its development and functioning; the complex of models is developed which permit on the basis of forecasting and imitation of realization of the financial plan to trace dynamics of changes of the characteristics of financial flows, to form and to realize the plans according to the elected strategy of use of financial resources; has received the further development: Model of movement of financial flows, which on the basis of methods of system dynamics permits to define changes of meanings of levels and rates of financial flows in conditions of action of different threats and to generate alternative variants of realization of the financial plan, which provides stable functioning of a financial system of the enterprise; is advanced: model of classification and choice of threats, which permits on the basis of methods многомерного and expertanalyses to define dominant threats, that is threats, which result in occurrence of a crisis financial condition of the enterprise; model of an estimation and analysis of a crisis financial condition of the enterprise, which enables on a basis to define of meaning of financial parameters at the given meanings of controlled parameters. The results can be used at the enterprises.