Barabanov V. Dynamic and statistical modelling of atmosphere circulation for the Black Sea region

Mesoscale features of climate for the Black Sea region were studied using linear and nonlinear numerical models and statistic procedures. The main goal of study was to reveal physical mechanisms responsible for regional climate peculiarities. Using reanalysis data the structure of surface wind field upon the Black Sea was analysed and the mechanisms of its formation were investigated. The linear steady-circulation atmosphere model was developed, representing coastal circulation cells, related to surface temperature contrast. The problem of climate downscaling for Ukraine and the Black Sea region was studied. Statistical modeling of precipitation for the region was performed by means of canonical correlation analysis. Significant connections of precipitation in Ukraine with North Atlantic atmosphere circulation because of cyclone intensity and path modulation by NAO were revealed. On the basis of adapted version of nonlinear mesoscale model monthly fields of meteorological parameters were obtained with30 km resolution for januaries 1996-2001. It was shown, that for this resolution the surface temperature contrast and mountainous topography are the main reasons of mesoscale pattern formation for surface wind and precipitation.