Stogniy O. Forecasting of Electricity Production and Consumption Volumes on the Basis of Interproduct Balance Models

Object of research: The Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine. The purpose of research: Development of the balance and optimization model for IPS of Ukraine, development of software means, and forecasting of amounts of production and consumption and corresponding equilibrium prices on the basis of the interproduct model. Methods of research: Economic and mathematical modelling, linear programming, statistical analysis. Theoretical results and scientific novelty: A method of long term forecasting is developed on the basis of the interproduct model. Practical results: proposed model became a component of the “PROGNOSIS-EQUILIBRIUM” software product developed at the Institute of General Energy of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. A subject and degree of introduction: Results of research are a part of the “Technique for Evaluation of Amounts of Electrical Energy Transmitted through the Main and International Power Grids and Corresponding Transmission Costs”. Efficiency of introduction: System modelling that takes into account technical and economic features of IPS of Ukraine. Sphere of use: Forecasting of amounts of electricity production and consumption, and corresponding equilibrium prices in power sector of Ukraine.