Pustovitenko A. Seismological fundamentals of the prognosis of a seismic hazard of territory of the south of Ukraine.

The dissertation is devoted to the quantitative study of physical parameters of seismic sources and seismicity of territory of Ukraine, determining the rate of seismic danger. In detail are explored and estimated parameters of the seismic regime: law of recurrence of earthquakes, level of seismic activity, power of seismic layer, seismic potential of main earthquake source zones (ESZ), and also parameters of sources of the most strong earthquakes in these areas. Spatial and temporal changeability of seismological parameters and their influence on a prognosis seismic danger is shown. On the basis of the got models of sources, seismicity, attenuation and areas ESZ a new model of seismic danger of territory of Ukraine is built. A seismic danger is presented as a complete set of maps of general seismic zoning (GSZ) of three levels (the scale 1 : 2 500 000) reflecting computation intensity I of seismic effect (in the points of the scale MSK-64) of expected on the given area with the given probabilityP(%) during the certain time interval t. For territory of south of Ukraine (Crimea, Odessa region) the detailed maps GSZ in the scale 1 : 1 000 000 are developed as in terms of intensity I, so in peak accelerations of Ag.