Selin Y. System estimation and prognostication of anomalous natural processes of Markov type

In dissertational work and on the basis of methods аand approaches of the system analysis polytypic dangerous ecological processes of the different nature are investigated. It is offered classification of these processes, the hierarchical structure of system of a supply with information of management and the control of an ecological condition is made. An especial attention is given to processes which in a consequence of the actions can have catastrophic consequences. It is offered the approach to the situational analysis of ecological processes which is based on use latent Markov. The functional chart of linguistic system of recognition of images which is intended for the decision of problems (tasks) situational to the analysis in ecology. For the first time is developed and offered algorithm of forecasting of behavior of ecological processes by means of updating a method of "similar trajectories". It performs numerical calculations of hour dependences of disabilities of building designs at different levels of seismic activity, and also dynamics (changes) tensely - deformed conditions Lyvadya's Central landslide systems at different levels landslide deposit watering a file. On the basis of the developed models, methods and algorithms the software is realized. The general conclusions have been done. The method of the hidden Markov processes is adapted for the evaluation of anomalous natural processes.