Pryimachenko N. Grounding of the system computation characteristics floods in the mountain river of Dnestr basin on the bases mathematical modeling of rain runoff formation processes.

For substantiation application of mathematical modelling of high waters in forecasting system the author executes following researches: the analysis of conditions, features of formation of rain high waters and their repeatability; generalisation of long-term characteristics of water discharges and water levels on the rivers of main basin the form of their values probability of excess from 0,5 to 50%; spatial distribution of modules of the maximum expenses of water; studying of spatial structure of fields of meteorological sizes and the estimation of accuracy of calculation of their averages on the area of values; multiple modelling of a runoff of water taking into account sensitivity of modelling and spatial parameters; definition of accuracy of calculation of a course of a runoff by means of functions of influence in the conditions of spatial heterogeneity of distribution of water formation on a catchment; technology improvement estimation parameters of mathematical models taking into account landscape characteristics of catchments. The forecasting subsystem "Dnestr–Maximum" provides short-term forecasting of water levels during rain high waters in 29 section lines on the small mountain rivers of main basin. For the purpose of increase of informative ability in the subsystem "Dnestr– Maximum" possibility probabilistic estimation water discharge/water levels on the period which is defined by advance time of the forecast of precipitation is provided.