Savchenko I. Methodological and mathematical support of solving foresight problems solution using modified morphological analysis method

The dissertation work is dedicated to the development of methodological and mathematical support of the qualitative analysis methods in the technology foresight process. A system approach to using the modified morphological analysis method (MMAM) in the foresight process is proposed in the work. The formalized procedure for probability calculation of morphological table parameter alternatives based on expert estimation using cross-consistency matrix is developed and researched. A two-stage procedure of the method for calculation of the efficiency of the strategy alternatives evaluated in the multitude of possible object configurations, generated by a morphological table, is proposed. A risk estimation strategy in MMAM is developed. Methods of adding time parameter to the morphological analysis problems using quasi-static approach are proposed. The strategy for using the proposed system approach in foresight problems is researched and developed. Several practical problems on the scope of large enterprises, cities and technology sectors are solved using the proposed method procedures.