Anisimov A. Numerical modeling of climate variability in the Black Sea region

The thesis is devoted to numerical modeling of climate variability in the Black Sea region. Regional climate model HadRM3P with spatial resolution of 25 x 25 km was adapted and adjusted to the territory of Ukraine and the Black Sea region. A retrospective analysis for the Black Sea region using ERA-40 data for 1958 - 2001 was performed. The results of the regional atmospheric circulation reanalysis were compared with observations. The analysis of large-scale features of vorticity and wind fields over the sea was carried out. Numerical characteristics of local mesoscale vorticity areas were obtained and the basic mechanisms that lead to their formation were described. Numerical estimates of the Black Sea water balance components (evaporation and precipitation) are given. Numerical experiments on the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to the Black Sea surface temperature changes, and on the influence of the sea basin on the regional climate were carried out. Quantitative assessment and description of the spatial structure of atmospheric climatic fields caused by land - sea temperature contrasts were performed. The contribution of the sea to the formation of regional climatic fields of atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, vorticity, temperature and precipitation was estimated. The response of regional climate on greenhouse gas concentration changes was studied. The quantitative characteristics of changes in basic parameters of climate of the Black Sea region in the late XXI century under two emission scenarios were obtained. Changes in temperature, precipitation means, frequency and intensity were estimated. The analysis of extreme precipitation for the current climate was performed and possible changes related to anthropogenic impact were assessed.