Cuza A. Justification of the ice phenomena emergence forecast on the basis of discriminant function in the conditions of the lowland rivers of Ukraine

The object - ice modes of the lowland rivers of Ukraine in the modern climatic conditions; the goal - justification of a new scientific approaches to drawing up the short-term ice phenomena emergence forecasts by use of methods of the multidimensional statistical analysis; methods - regressive, factor, discriminant analysis; the results - the estimation of atmospheric circulation influence on the ice mode forming of the rivers is executed; the influence of global climate changes on the hydrological and ice modes of the rivers of Ukraine is investigated; the main factors of ice formation on a base R-modification factor analysis is determinated; the procedure of short-term forecast of an ice formation start dates with the use of discriminant analysis is developed; the algorithm of prognosis of the rivers' ice mode with the use of multidimensional statistical analysis methods is offered; the novelty - justification and development of forecast procedures of an ice phenomena appearance in modern climatic terms for the lowland rivers of Ukraine on the basis of discriminant function; the introduction degree - implemented; the branch of using - hydrometeorological departments, water agencies, local self-government.