Lazarchuk I. Adaptive models of integrated processes in marine ecosystems

The thesis is devoted to the development of a new class of mathematical models of marine ecosystems, which are based on the principle of balance of adaptive processes occurring within ecosystems under external influence of the marine environment. The use of negative feedback in each of the model equations is the main feature of this class of models, called adaptive ones. Construction of adaptive models is based on known observations of causal relationships between the processes occurring in the marine environment. Adaptive methods for modeling processes in marine ecosystems are developed. The analysis of the negative feedbacks' stabilizing properties in the models of marine ecosystems was made. An adaptive model of integral processes in marine ecosystem of the north-western shelf of the Black Sea was first designed on the basis of the ABC-method containing management agents, controlling the resource supply of aquatic organisms. Scenarios for integrated processes which conform to the known evidence of their variability in this area are built. For the first time constructed adaptive mathematical models of marine ecosystems with management agents in their structure allowed to obtain spatial and spatial-temporal evaluations of the directly unobservable concentrations of biogeochemical ecosystem components, using remote sensing data fields of the chlorophyll a concentration and the sea surface temperature. These models were used to construct maps of annual variability of biogeochemical parameters concentration fields in the NWS BS, by adapting their model values to satellite observations.