Khrystyuk B. Features of formation of the runoff of the Danube River and the development of techniques for its forecasting

The actual scientific and practical problem concerning forecasting of water levels on the navigable part of the river Danube was solved. For forecasting of water levels on the Danube navigable part was used the method of corresponding daily increments of water levels. In addition, was developed a technique for the classification of the hydrographs using the data of the Danube - Reni gauge for period 1921-2010. 29 classes of the hydrographs were determined. The presence in a long series of observations classes of hydrographs having similar shape, indicating that from time to time in the Danube catchment we can observe similar conditions of runoff formation. For the first time for the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta were defined probabilistic characteristics of ice phenomena. It is established that the characteristics of ice phenomena have cyclical fluctuations. On the basis of the developed techniques of the forecasting of the daily and characteristic ten-day and monthly water levels of the navigable part of Danube the computer program "The analytical and expert system for the forecasting of the water levels of the navigable part of Danube "Ister" were created. It was sent for test in the Danube hydromoteorological observatory.