Malafeeva L. Mathematical support of solving foresight problems solution using modified method Delphi

The dissertation work is dedicated to the development mathematical support of the qualitative analysis methods in the technology foresight process. The work presents a system approach to solving foresight problems based on modified Delphi method using on-line. A formalization of the mathematical apparatus of expert evaluation procedure based on the Delphi modified method in on-line was developed. For the first time structured knowledge base of foresight technology, which presented by information model prototype frames, was developed. For the first time automatically instrument of forms generation for expert survey method based on modified Delphi method with the ability to conduct survey in on-line mode was developed. The strategy for using the proposed system approach in foresight problems is researched and developed. Several practical problems on the scope of large enterprises, cities and technology sectors are solved using the proposed method procedures.