Bozhok Y. Annual and low flow of rivers of North-Western Black Sea Region under climate changes.

Object - water resources of the rivers of North-Western Black Sea Region under climate changes; purpose - assessment of changes of the annual and low-water flow characteristics on the territory of North-Western Black Sea Region under climate changes; methods - pair and multiple regression, factor analysis, mathematical model "climate-runoff"; results - the objective laws of changes in climatic factors and characteristics of annual and low-water flow during period of significant changes in temperature in Ukraine (since 1989) are identified; possible changes in climatic factors of the flow formation (for the year, warm and cold periods) according to climatic scenarios of global warming A1B and A2 are determined; characteristics of aridity and drought indices over the past decade and using data of global warming scenarios A1B and A2 are detected; possible changes of the annual runoff characteristics using climatic scenarios A1B and A2 based on the model "climate- runoff " are estimated; the main factors of summer-autumn low water characteristics during the climate change period based on factor analysis are identified; contribution of drought index SPEI in the summer-autumn low water formation based on the method of calculation and prediction of minimum flow characteristics using regression analysis are shown; novelty - evaluation of change tendencies of climatic factors and characteristics of annual and low-water flow on the territory of North-Western Black Sea Region in last two decades and estimation of its changes in XXI century using scenarios of global warming A1B and A2 on the base of model "climate-runoff"; the introduction degree - implemented; the branch of using - hydrometeorological departments, water management organizations, local self-government.