Litvinenko K. Mathematical modelling of the process of the estimation of technological risks of the mining and transport system of deep open-cast mines

The thesis work is devoted to application of mathematical modelling to estimate the risks of difficult technological systems by a method of working out of corresponding mathematical models on the basis of a hypercasual approach and GERT-method network modelling. Questions of possibility of application of procedures GERT - modelling to a problem of a numerical estimation of technological risks are investigated. Rules of construction of risk models and a choice of parameters of modelling are formulated. Stochastic network models for an estimation of the risks of planned performance loss of transport and loading equipment at the stages of shovelling and transportation of ROM in the deep open-cast mines and the process of semi knock-down equipment repair are offered. Possibility of the use of hyperaccident of the events, arising in the conditions of uncertainty of statistical laws and nonstationarity of the equipment functioning process, to construction of estimated procedures of the risks of not planned losses is investigated. The approach of averaging and interpolation of statistical laws in the conditions of hyperaccident of risks in condition of system functioning is offered.