Zamirets O. Methods of determining threshold values of occurrence of natural disasters under uncertainty

The research object - the processes of natural disasters' development; the research goal - to improve the efficiency of making decisions about the transition of emergency situations in natural disasters based on the integrated use of remote aerospace and contact measurements; the research methods - methods of probability theory, graph theory, algebra of fuzzy sets and digital image processing have been used; practical results - the developed methods are scientific and methodological basis for the formation criteria of the transition of emergency situations in disasters and allow to reduce the time required to determine the state of natural disaster; novelty - the method of determining invariants of disasters' boundaries has been proposed for the first time, the method of determining current state of the object of monitoring by the "descending" inference has been developed, the method of determining boundaries of factors' maximal and combinatorial influence in disasters' occurrence has been improved and the method of forming new features of determining boundary states of emergencies has been received the further development; degree of implementation - results have been implemented in NAU "KhAI", SE "DO "Yuzhnoe" named after M. K. Yangel", SSRE "Koneks"; area of use - remote aerospace monitoring.