Pankratov V. Strategy for the development of socio-economic systems based on the methodologies of foresight and cognitive modeling

The study is aimed at developing of socio-economic systems strategy based on mathematical support simultaneous use of methodologies foresight and cognitive modeling. In this thesis the methodologies are used together: the first phase foresight methodology used and its results used as source data in the second stage - for cognitive modeling. In some cases, when the output information for cognitive modeling is given in statistical form as separate logical groups, the method of constructing an integrated indicator data is proposed. This enables all groups to aggregate in integrated indicator data used the proposed method of recovery of functional dependences for discrete specifiedsamples or carry out decomposition integrated indicator to individual subject groups, followed by decomposition of the logical sequence characteristics.That is the construction of cognitive maps reasonably add or remove her vertex, vertex to break a sequence of interconnected nodes. The proposed system approach to solving problems of social and economic systems based on synthesis methodologies foresight and cognitive modeling allows to build a science-based strategy to implement priority alternative scenario of social and economic systems of different nature and offers a unique opportunity within a single software and analytical complex to solve problems of strategic planning and rapid response.