Gotovych V. Mathematical modeling and statistical estimation of characteristics of the regular mode of organizations` power consumption

The thesis is devoted to solving the topical problem of mathematical modelling and statistical estimation of characteristics of electric power consumption of organizations in order to provide a regular mode of electric power consumption in the topology of the organization's network. The maintenance of the regular mode of the organization’s electric power consumption process is proposed as a set of two interconnected tasks: the tasks of control the quality of electricity at the input of the power grid of the organization and the tasks of control the amount of electric power consumption by the topology of the organization's network. A general model of the organization’s electric power consumption process is proposed in the form of multicomponent random process with change points on current and long time intervals of observation. The method for creating models of the organization’s electric power consumption process based on measurement data using modern methods of decomposition and detecting time series change points has been further developed. A stochastic model of electric voltage supply with dynamics of distortion in time of amplitude and frequency is offered which allows taking into account all possible variants of deterioration of electric power quality. The variant of the hardware-software complex for the monitoring of the regular mode of the process of electric power consumption of the organization is offered.