Havey I. The reaction of populations of dominants of the winter wheat entomocomplex on the influence of natural and anthropogenic environmental factors

Object of study – dynamics of the number of species insect dominant in the winter wheat harmful complex in the Forest-Steppe of Ukraine. The aim of the study – to find out and analyze the impact of climate change on the dynamics of the number of harmful insects dominant winter wheat in the Forest-Steppe of Ukraine and to determine the potential loss of crops from them. Research methods – field research method – to determine the species composition and population density and density of winter wheat pests; analysis of long-term databases of the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection, Hydrometeocenter of Ukraine – to determine the long-term dynamics of the number of harmful entomocomplex of winter wheat in terms of warming and ecological prediction of phytosanitary crop threat. Theoretical and practical results – аs a result of the dissertation, the author presents theoretical generalizations that contribute to the scientifically applied solution of the problem. In order to preserve the environment, the use of chemical insecticides for plant protection should be carried out only after assessing the potential threats to the crop. Provided that the number of all types of harmful entomocomplex of winter wheat in the Forest-Steppe of Ukraine does not exceed the threshold levels, the decision on the feasibility of chemical protection of crops should be made on the assessment of potential crop losses from the pest complex. Complex harm calculations are carried out according to the results of entomological monitoring. Such chemical protection tactics will increase the profitability of production and will have a positive impact on the environment of Ukraine. Novelty – for the first time: found that the structure of dominance of harmful species has changed significantly, it is more aligned, which indicates the continuation of the process of ecological restructuring of the entomocomplex under conditions of warming; it is found out that in the conditions of gradual increase of the ambient temperature, decrease of humidification and increase of measures of plant protection, the long-term dynamics of populations of all investigated species of winter wheat entomocomplex in the Forest-Steppe of Ukraine is depressing; the existence of correlation between averaged indicators of long-term dynamics of winter insect pest populations and dynamics of such basic natural and anthropogenic agri-environmental factors as heat supply, humidity of the territory and increase of chemical treatment of crops; it has been found that in the conditions of the forest-steppe zone, with potential warming, the potential losses of winter wheat crop from the complex of dominant insects in the last 12 years have decreased to the minimum values and only in the Kharkiv region reach the level of ETOH (3,15 %). The ecological substantiation of phytosanitary predictions of the harmfulness of the entomocomplex of dominant winter wheat phytophagous species in the forest-steppe of Ukraine under climate change has been improved: unlike the forecasts of the international experts on the increase of the phytosanitary stress during the warming period. The degree of implementation – the results of the studies have been subjected to a production test and implemented in the farm of Prograin Ukr on an area of 200 hectares and in the farm of Agrofirm Kolos on an area of 100 hectares, to determine the potential losses of winter wheat crop from pests by the method of calculation of integral index of pest. The materials of the dissertation are used in the scientific and educational work of the National University of Bioresources and Environmental Management of Ukraine in teaching courses "General ecology", "Biological plant protection", "Population ecology", "Forecast of the development of harmful organisms" and "Conservation of biodiversity" implementation. Scope (area) of use – agriculture, in educational activity of Institution of Higher Education with agricultural specialization and at the agricultural enterprises of the Forest-steppe belt.