Godun O. Predictive modeling of nuclear fuel cycles based on trend analysis

The aim of work is to improve the methods of organizing the process of predictive modeling of the NFC, in particular, through the development of appropriate mathematical models of a partially closed and closed NFC, the application of trend analysis to the preparation of primary model's information, the study of models in various modes of their functioning and the interpretation of modeling results. A method for generating primary information based on time variables of technical and economic parameters, taking into account trends in the development of the nuclear fuel cycle, has been proposed. A method for multicriteria comparative assessment of NFC variants and a method for analyzing the sensitivity of the results of NFC modeling based on the variability of the input parameter with trend analysis are proposed. Computer models of the partially closed and closed NFC of Ukraine have been developed, with the use of which predictive modeling and comparative assessment of NFC options for the long term have been carried out. For the first time, a rational version of the final management of spent nuclear fuel from Ukrainian NPPs in the long term is proposed. The results of the dissertation work have been introduced and used in the Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection of Ukraine, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine, the State Enterprise "National Atomic Energy Generating Company" Energoatom "(SE" NAEK "Energoatom") and the IAEA.