Tryeskunova L. Modeling a mechanism of planning production activity for enterprises with uncertain demand

Object of the research: production and economic activity of manufacturing companies with an indefinite portfolio of orders. Purpose of the research: creation of methodology of modeling production activity of the companies with an indefinite portfolio of orders as well as building up the respective instruments for strategic and operational planning of the activity of the above mentioned companies. Methods of the research: management theory, system analysis, and economical-mathematical modeling. Results: determined features of the subject of the research; found out the main methodological aspects of planning of the companies activity with an indefinite portfolio of orders that provide opportunities with regards to development and regulation of the system; found out necessity of creation of an expert system of the complex diagnostics of the companies activity; worked out a model and method of solving a problem of distribution of the clients' products amongst the companies; created models of forming a set of production curves; created a model of forming of the production unit which allows to outline a potential at a strategic level for providing technical and technological perception of an orders perceptive company to its orders; worked out a scheme of evaluation of a current economical perceptivity of a company to its orders; created a model of incorporation of receiving orders into the current plan-schedule of the company with an indefinite system of orders; worked out a method for solving a problem of incorporation of the orders and forming a plan-schedule. News: developed a mechanism of functioning a two-level diagnostic expert system which allows to research systematically various parts of the company's activity and deepen a search for the reasons that arise during the malfunctions; executed modeling a mechanism of strategic planning, which differs from existing ones because it is used under more indefinite conditions and aims to develop production characteristics of the system with the purpose to provid e flexibility in the company's activity with an indefinite system of orders; executed modeling a mechanism of operation planning of the production activity of companies with indefinite systems of orders that differs from the existing ones because it is more flexible as well as provides estimation of perceptivity and further incorporation into the current plan-schedule of each receiving order. Applying fields: pertaining to the level of enterprise.