Shakirzanova Z. Scientific substantiation for the method of spatial long-term forecasting of maximum spring flood runoff characteristics and its practical implementation within the flat territory of Ukraine.

A method and scientific guidelines that allow long-term forecasting of runoff depth and maximum discharge, the dates of passage of spring floods on the flat rivers of Ukraine are suggested. Forecasting of runoff characteristics of flood accomplished in the preliminary determination of the type of future spring processes in accordance with a complex interactions between of factors of flood (when using discriminant analysis); predicting runoff depth and maximum discharge of spring floods (at their regional dependence of the total reserves of water on the catchment, expressed in unit coefficients and presented in equations of polynomials) at lead time of 20-40 days; determining the probability of type of flood water content in perennial period; representation of the forecast characteristics (in unit coefficients) and their probabilities in cartographic form, making of long-term forecasts of runoff depth and maximum of floods on the rivers of the regions that are not covered by the data of hydrological measurements within industry-application of zoning. The method of background forecasting of dates of beginning and passing the maximum charges (levels) of spring flood at a spatial generalization of the coefficients and parameters forecasting scheme is substantiated and that makes it possible to establish dates in the on-line mode of forecasting of floods on the rivers, regardless of their hydrological investigation.