Burtiev R. Methodology for seismic hazard assessment based on probabilistic models of seismicity

The thesis focuses on the development of the new measure of seismic hazard and methodology of it assessment. The Markov model of seismicity is elaborated, which allows to forecasting of the interval values of latitudes, longitudes, depth of the hypocenters and magnitudes of earthquakes. A configuration, having the shape of an ellipse which major axis is turned on angle 51degree concerning the positive direction of abscissa axis. The coefficients of the attenuation relationships for Moldova between seismic intensity I and earthquake's characteristics: magnitudes Mw, epicentral distance с, depth h in the Vrancea zone are represented by empirical azimuth-dependent attenuation equation. Their value was determined as follows: a=1.6; c=7.2, the biggest axis of the ellipse being bmax=5.6 and the smallest bmin=4.9. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed and the map of seismic hazard of Moldova and adjacent territory is elaborated.