Domoroshchyn S. Improved methods for predicting the risk of high voltage switchgear disruption

The dissertation is devoted to the solution of issues of improvement of the existing system of distribution of financial assets for planned preventive repairs of high-voltage switchgear equipment of electric power enterprises. The improvement is based on forecasting the risks of disruption of the high-voltage switchgear according to data on the current technical state of the continuous monitoring systems of the responsible electrical equipment. For the first time, a generalized fuzzy mathematical model for assessing the technical state of the main responsible electrical equipment of high-voltage switchgears was developed, in which the main diagnostic parameters of the impact on the residual life of electrical equipment are integrated. The work has developed fuzzy mathematical models for evaluating the technical state of the following elements of switchgears: arrester, gas-insulated circuit breaker, instrument transformer, disconnector. The developed fuzzy models were used in experimental model studies of the high-voltage switchgear of electrical power systems. An improved expert-statistical method of predicting the residual life of electrical equipment in the "on-line" mode is proposed, which is implemented by a combination of probabilistic-statistical and heuristic prediction methods. For the first time, a probabilistic-topological method for determining disruption of high-voltage switchgears was developed, which combines probabilistic indicators of the residual life of electrical equipment with topological impact, which is determined by the structural diagram of the electrical installation. The use of the obtained results is envisaged by their implementation in the continuous monitoring systems of electrical equipment of high-voltage switchgear of electric power plants.