The object of the study is the consumption of energy resources necessary to ensure the functioning of the country's economy, taking into account the structural and technological changes planned for the long term. The subject of the research is methods and models of forecasting energy consumption at three hierarchical levels of the economy, taking into account the influence of the structure of the economy and technical progress in the regions and regional sections of the economy by types of economic activity.
The purpose of the research is the development of a complex method, a mathematical model of forecasting the demand for energy resources by modifying the complex method based on a two-level model of energy consumption forecasting with the reconciliation of the obtained forecasts by a non-iterative method of harmonizing forecast solutions for three levels of the economy with the proposal of a three-stage method based on a three-level model of forecasting energy consumption and double coordination of received forecasts at three hierarchical levels.
Research methods used in the work: system analysis - to create a system of energy efficiency indicators at three hierarchical levels; normative method - for forecasting the consumption of energy resources at hierarchical levels of the economy; direct account method - for forecasting the demand for electricity by the population; the method of matching forecast solutions - for double, non-iterative matching of forecasts; statistical method - for analyzing retrospective data and comparing forecast calculations based on energy consumption trends; calculation - to determine the indicator of technological energy intensity, for the combined production of thermal and electrical energy.
Theoretical and practical significance. The developed comprehensive method for a three-level hierarchical energy consumption system is based on available statistical data and is a reliable energy consumption forecasting tool, as it provides consistent forecasts at the corresponding hierarchical levels.
The proposed indicator of the technological energy intensity of products on the example of the combined production of thermal and electrical energy is used in a three-level model to calculate the technological potential of energy saving, taking into account the energy costs for environmental protection measures, which made it possible to choose an ecologically effective technology for burning organic fuel.
Scientific novelty: 1. A complex method of forecasting the demand for energy resources has been developed, which, unlike the existing one, makes it possible to obtain forecast levels of consumption of energy resources simultaneously at three hierarchical levels of the economy: the country, regions, types of economic activity in the regions; 2. For the first time, a three-level mathematical model of energy consumption forecasting was developed, in which it is proposed to use the same type of energy efficiency indicators - the energy intensity of the gross added value for the corresponding hierarchical levels, taking into account the regional features of the economy; 3. The method of coordinating forecast decisions has been adapted for double reconciliation of results, by applying the method of coordinating forecast decisions in two stages: І – agreement of the amount of energy consumption by VED in the region and at the regional level with further summarization of the results by region, II – agreement of the amount of previously agreed regional levels with national; 4. To determine the technological potential of energy saving at the level of production of energy carriers, it is proposed to use a new indicator of technological energy intensity, which includes the coefficient of distribution of joint energy costs for the production of two types of energy carriers, and takes into account, in addition to energy costs in the main and auxiliary equipment, energy costs for environmental protection measures to reduce harmful load on the environment.
The results of the scientific work were used in the Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in the preparation of proposals and comments: to the project of the structure of the forecast fuel and energy balance of Ukraine, developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine; Also, the results of the scientific work were used in the preparation of information and analytical materials for the protocol working meeting of NEC "Ukrenergo"; Developments regarding the calculated mathematical model for determining the technological energy intensity of products and the calculated types of energy intensity for the combined production of energy carriers at a thermal power plant were used in the preparation of additions to DSTU 3682-98 and provided to the technical committee of TC 48 Energy Conservation of the State Committee for Standardization of Ukraine.
