Nikolayeva I. Modeling of enterprise’s competitive ability under the conditions of uncertainty

The research subject is the process of enterprise's functioning under the conditions of uncertainty. The goal of the work is the development of models' system that helps to give references and to take a decision about strategical management of enterprise’s competitive ability. The following methods were employed in the research: methods of economic theory, mathematical economics, theory of complex systems, theory of operations research - for development of the hierarchical system of models; methods of economic theory, probability theory, theory of mathematical statistics, theory of fuzzy sets, theory of taking a decision and analysis of hierarchies - for development of models of products' and markets' forecasting; theory of processing of fuzzy information, theory of operations research, theory of matrix antagonistic games for development of the model of production distribution between markets of its sale, of the model of competitive enterprises' coordination and of the model of valuation of effectiveness and risk of taking a decision about strategical management of of enterprise’s competitive ability. The practical value is in the following results: the realization of the hierarchical system of models determines the technical approach that helps to give references and to take a decision about strategical management of enterprise’s competitive ability; modelling of products and markets, that are forecasted, provides forming of great number jf markets, which are common and individual for competitive enterprises; models of estimated probability of product's sale allow to form the vector of saturation of the market and to plan the production distribution between markets; models of competitive enterprises' coordination allow to determine the possible result of coordination. The scientific importance of the acquired results is in the development of models' system that helps to give references and to take a decision about strategical management of of enterprise’s competitive ability; the forecast of products and markets, that realizes by proposed models; modelling of estimated probability of product's sale allow to form the vector of saturation of the market; modelling of production value allow to determine the profit of competitive enterprise; modelling of the fuzzy subset of strategies of providing the market with products takes into account the saturation of markets, that allow to find the preferable organization of supply management; models of competitive enterprises' coordination as the fuzzy subset of fuzzy matrix antagonistic games, their solution allow to determine the modelling of possible result; modelling of strategical management of enterprise’s competitive ability is possible on the basis of comparison of fuzzy supsets of the possible rezult and the wishful rezult and that allow to take a decision by the indeces of effectiveness and risk about about strategical management of enterprise’s competitive ability under the conditions of uncertainty. Scope of application – the possibility of use of the hierarchical system of models during the working up of strategical plans by industrial enterprises.