Steshenko I. Formation of a portfolio of the bonds in view of casual change of the characteristics

Object of research - processes of formation of a portofolio of the bonds in the share market of Ukraine. The purpose of research - development of models of formation of a portofolio of the bonds on the basis of modeling the characteristics of the bonds in view of casual character of their behaviour. Research receptions: the methods of optimization, theory of casual processes, principles are used, the models and methods of financial mathematics (are constructed economic-mathematical models of formation of a portofolio of the bonds in view of casual change of the characteristics); methods of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics (is developed models of forecasting of the market prices, interest rates); the theories of cost (is developed models of an estimation of parameters, which enter into model of the casual interest rate); the theories of numbers(lines), acceptance of the decisions (formation of a portofolio of the bonds in view of the current price, problem of elimination of risk ofdefault of payment connected to change of the interest rate on the bank bill of the investor). Theoretical result - complex of economic-mathematical models of process formation of a portofolio of the bonds. The practical result - consists in because under conditions of casual change of the characteristics of the bonds the generated models permit to the investors effectively to estimate the bonds, to carry out them in a portofolio of the bonds and to supervise over it so that the resalt of the generated portofolio from operations of sale and purchase of its separate actives was greatest. The development can be applied in realization of operations in the secondary share market. Scientific novelty - for the first time: the model of formation of a portofolio of the bonds is developed in view of casual change of the characteristics on the basis of the theory of casual processes, which permits to the investor operatively to vary by actives of portofolioes of the bonds for reception of the guaranteed income; The complex of economic-mathematical models of forecasting of the prices and interest rates of the bonds based on the theory and mathematical statistics is developed which permits on the basis of the statistical bonds, given the market price, to predict the market price and interest rate for the given period of time; have received the further development: models of an estimation of parameters, which enter into model of the casual interest rate of the bonds based on асимптотичній of the theory, which permits to form a portofolio of the bonds in view of casual change of the characteristics; model of elimination of risk of default of payment connected to change of the interest rate on the bank bill of the investor, based on the theory of numbers, which enables the investor to receive additional profit and to make payment in the specified term; Model of a portofolio of the bonds in view of the current price of the bonds and constant interest rate based on the theories of numbers, which enables dynamically to vary actives of a portofolio and to form its effective structure.