Serebrovsky O. Method of designing of risk assessment and analysis automated system at potentially hazardous objects

The thesis is devoted to the development of the methodology to create the automated systems for risk assessment and analysis of situations at potentially hazardous objects. The formalized method for the description of technogeneous hazard development on potentially hazardous objects is proposed. The situation (i.e. the state of the object and its environment) is determined by the set of independent factor values that influence the probabilities of the specific types of hazard.One of the methods is based on the monitoring function that characterizes the degree of situation abnormalities. It allows to rank the situations according to the hazard degree. The adjustment of the monitoring session provides the possibility to control the process of preliminary assessment. As a result, the general efficiency of the Automated System for Checking, Analysis, and Prevention of Accidents can be enhanced due to the separation of the normal and quasi-normal situations. That would allow the users to concentrate theirattention on the extreme situations and on the suspect situations, which could turn into the extreme ones. The method of the current situations operative analysis on potentially hazardous objects is proposed. It allows to estimate a hazard degree of situations using the accident probability criterion, to reveal the most probable sources of the danger and ways of its development, to determine the causes of the arisen situations. The proposed method is based on the combination of the 'fault-tree' method and the method of expert estimated scales. The system of indices describing the situations at objects and the method for their calculation is elaborated.