Zhukovska O. Group decision making interval models under risk condition

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Candidate of Sciences (CSc)

State registration number

0406U004091

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 01.05.04 - Системний аналіз і теорія оптимальних рішень

26-10-2006

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.001.35

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Essay

The dissertation is devoted to development collective decision making interval model by an independent group of experts. Such a model is based on application of a priori information about frequencies of errors made by experts when they estimate a random object state on a samples limited set. The center-radius form intervals multipli-cation analytical method is suggested. Comparison with other known approaches is car-ried out. It is shown that obtained analytical expressions allow give exact result for any valid intervals. The interval approach permits to investigate the formal conditions ena-bling to guarantee expert qualification at diagnostics of a random object states. It is proved that for practical use of the received conditions for any given confidential prob-ability the volume of experimental samples necessary for estimating experts' errors fre-quencies can be determined.

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