Nedashkivska N. Development of Methodological and Mathematical Tools for Foresight Problems Solution on basis of Modified Analytical Hierarchy Process

The thesis is devoted to the problem of development of system approach for foresight problems solution reliability evaluation on the base of modified analytic hierarchy process (MAHP), based on fuzzy expert information processing, including measure of inonsisteny. Modification of BOCR MAHP for unpredictable and force majeur risks when calculating alternatives’ relative weights in foresight problems is developed. Indexes for information risk, caused by subjectivity of expert judgments, are proposed. Developed comprehensive sensitivity analysis can help in finding areas of changes of elements’ weights that result in changes in ranking order of alternatives for multiple level hierarchies. Analysis of rank reversal appearance in distributive, ideal, multiplicative synthesis of MAHP, group account of binary preference relations and minimum function synthesis is performed and conditions of its appearance are revealed when adding alternatives with different properties.