Lyfar V. The models of emergency situations and estimation method of the technogenic risk in the automatic providing system of manufacture’s safety

The object is processes and methods of providing of safety of technogen objects; the subjects are mathematical models, methods of analysis, estimations and prognostications of consequences of extraordinary situations for achievement of acceptable strength of industrial objects security; the purpose is providing of acceptable strength of industrial objects security on the basis of automation of design of extraordinary situations and estimation of technogen risk; methods - mathematical physics, calculable mathematics, probability theory, principles of theory of the informative systems and modern methods of the collective programming; novelty – the method of estimation of indexes of risk of origin of extraordinary situations is first developed, being based on the account of the complex affecting technogen objects, objects of providing of vital functions and people of different sources of danger; improved model of description of dangerous environment of technogen object, the dynamics of processes of the troop landing and model of destructions of industrial objects is taken into account in which; the method of analysis of technogen objects, based on the complex design of dangerous physical processes taking into account causal-investigatory connections between initiating events and threats, related to the origin of extraordinary situations, got further development; efficiency – branch; application - chemical industry.