Korepanov O. Statistical prediction of conjuncture of the agrarian market in Ukraine

Purpose of research: a development of methodological foundation of statistical analysis and forecasting of conjuncture of the agrarian market in Ukraine. Object of research: modern agrarian market in Ukraine. Subject of research: a tendency, laws and factors that form the conjuncture of the agrarian market in Ukraine. Methods of investigation: the method of theoretical generalization, the method of logical modelling, the graphic method; the economical and statistical methods: the method of comparison, the index method, the method of canonical correlation, the factor analysis (method of main components), the cluster analysis, the method of ranking, the method of simulation, analysis and forecasting of time series, the method of system dynamics. The scientific novelty of the results is in the following. For the first time: periodical rectangular components of the main elements of the economic, internal industrial potential and prices of animal produce were dedicated; the main factors that form the conjuncture of the agrarian market in Ukraine were defined. Improved: the conceptual apparatus of the research of the conjuncture of market and the theoretical justification of the contain of the concept "conjuncture"; the conceptual access to the total evaluator of differentiation and ranking of the internal industrial potential of the regional agrarian market in Ukraine; the basic model of The Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles by D.L.Meadows. Have got further development: conceptual methodical foundation of the statistical estimation of the total demand formation factors in the regional agrarian market. Extent of implementation: The results of the research are used in the analytical work of The Senior Management of Statistics in the region of Kharkov in the time of preparation of analytical notes of the level and research of the tendency of the agrarian market, in the activity of the LLC "Iskra" of the Kupyanskiy district of the Kharkov region in the time of the development of measures for the support of the stability and the effective functioning of an enterprise, in the educational process in the Kharkov National University of V.N. Karazyn at teaching the discipline "Economical statistical methods of the analysis of conjuncture of market".