Fastova D. Methods and models of the forecasting subsystem of the avalanche situations appearance

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Candidate of Sciences (CSc)

State registration number

0408U005185

Thesis Registration Form

0408U005185.pdf

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 05.13.06 - Інформаційні технології

05-11-2008

Specialized Academic Board

Д 64.05.01

Essay

In the thesis methods and models of the avalanche situations appearance for quality rising of the avalanche forecasts in the forecasting subsystem of geo-information system are developed. The method of the avalanching time analysis is proposed on the basis of the information technologies analysis of the avalanche forecast, which is based on usage of the fuzzy interpretation model of the avalanching time characteristics and probabilistic model of avalanche climate. The fuzzy interpretation model of the avalanching time characteristics is proposed for quality rising of the avalanche forecasts. The interpretation model of avalanche climate analysis is advanced. This model makes it possible to determine the avalanche and non-avalanche sets bounds and to consider the seasonality factor of the avalanche activity

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Files

aref.doc

dis.pdf

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