Tsaruk O. Statistical Analysis and Estimation of Government Debt

The dissertation is devoted to development of theoretical and methodical principles and practical recommendations on improvement of statistical analysis and estimation of government debt. The essence of the "government debt" as the socio-economic concept and its mutual connection with processes and phenomena of market economy is considered. The "macroeconomic government debt effects" concept's essence is defined. Guidelines of Ukraine's government finances statistics harmonisation with international standards regarding approaches for government debt liabilities estimation and consolidation are suggested. The debt indicator system and the methodical principles of its calculation are considered. Complex analysis of government debt formation and its macroeconomic effects are carried out. The direct government debt forecast on the basis of regression and ARIMA model are given. The cyclic government debt variation is estimated. Ukraine's government debt growth cyclic index is calculated and extrapolated. The debt overhang evaluation on the basis of the integral index, calculated as multidimensional average of debt indicators, is carried out. The system of debt indicators is complemented with groups of indexes of social burden, innovative and investment development. The methodical and organisational principles of the statistical monitoring system of government debt are studied. The complex economic and statistical estimation of Ukraine's government debt volume is given.