Kravchuk O. The development of adaptive technical diagnostics system with forecasting

Dissertation is devoted to the decision of the actual scientific task - the development of adaptive technical diagnostics system with forecasting. The dissertation is devoted to maintenance of a necessary level of non-failure operation СТS due to use of adaptive information system of technical diagnostics with forecasting. Algorithms of the proof individual operative forecast of parametrical reliability СТS on statistically non-uniform data of the limited volume are developed at absence of aprioristic data on probability of the characteristic of process of drift of parameters. The substantiation of structure of algorithm of identification of model of drift of parameter is executed in view of known time of updating of a technical condition. Synthesis of algorithm of identification of density of distribution of probabilities of casual process of drift of parameters in a class of a mix of unknown distribution is executed at not one components in a mix. Settlement ratio for size of managing influence on process of drift of parameter are received at use of results of the forecast of the moment of its output for borders of operational admissions. It is executed estimate efficiency of use of adaptive information system.