Martynyuk O. Medium-term two-level load and power demand forecasting of union power system

The object of research: planning of operating modes of the union power system. The purpose of research: improvement of mathematical models of electric load and power demand of the power system and working out on their basis of methods of medium-term forecasting EL and PD. Methods of research: the methods of optimisation, the mathematical statistics, statistical modelling and the analysis of time numbers. Theoretical and practical results and innovations: first time the method of medium-term forecasting monthly PD by data about structure of PD is developed; new mathematical models of EL and PD which consider influence of power consumption of the enterprises, week non-uniformity of daily PD and seasonal prevalence of influence of meteofactors are developed; it is created a program complex of medium-term two-level forecasting of EL and PD. A subject and degree of the application: results are implemented in the form of a program complex in commercial operation in NEC «Ukrenergo». Effectiveness of implantation: increase of accuracy and reliability of medium-term forecasting of EL and PD. The sphere of application: planning of operating modes the regional and united power systems.