Gunderich G. Development of method of prognostics control of modern multiservices telecommunications networks

Сomplex of methods and controls prognostics multiservices networks on the stage of their convergence in the network of next generations are develop. Development of scientifically-methodical vehicle of research multi services telecommunications networks in-process decides in part of prognostication of their parameters influencing on the refusals. A level model is in-process synthesized much multiservices networks as it applies to the decided task. The group of basic indexes of fault tolerance formalization multiservices networks, and also intercommunication is rotined between them and decision of tasks of prognostication of the state of different levels multi services telecommunications networks. The models of processes are synthesized as structures, containing sedate functions and harmonic constituents, which design the presence of the obviously expressed days', a week and other prognostics of change of parameters. Classification of methods of prognostication is executed and the group of methods of structural authentication is chosen for the decision of tasks of synthesis of models of change of factors in the conditions of substantial a priori vagueness in relation to their structure. Offered and applied the observer identifiers structural, based on application of new indexes of repetition of prognoses, and also on the use of method of middle for the decision of tasks of self-reactance authentication.The synthesized method is taken to algorithmic and programm realization and applied to the decision of practical tasks. An application domain is the system of telecommunications.